ABOUT.

About This Project

The Crisis Ratio is a structural model of U.S. fiscal cascade risk under AI-driven labor displacement. It was developed as a working paper inviting critique from economists, financial analysts, and policy researchers. The full paper is available here.

The project is the work of Jay Sanders, a musician and entrepreneur based in Asheville, North Carolina. Jay has spent the last several years thinking about fiscal sustainability and what AI displacement implies for it, drawing on his background running businesses through multiple economic cycles, his work as a composer and performer, and his interest in systems thinking. He is not a credentialed economist. The paper was developed in collaboration with AI tools used as a writing and research assistant.

The argument is offered without ideological commitment. If parts of it are wrong, the author wants to know: feedback@crisisratio.com. If parts of it are useful, he hopes they circulate.

What This Is Not

• Not a forecast. The model is not predicting any specific outcome. It is showing the mathematical structure of a particular feedback loop, conditional on whether a coupling shock fires.
• Not investment advice. Do not buy or sell anything based on a slider on a website.
• Not partisan. The math does not care which party is in power.
• Not a complete model. The methodology page details what is deliberately omitted — and explains why the conventional "buffers" (Fed intervention, reserve currency status, raising taxes) don't break the cascade if it fires.
• Not new. Debt-service-to-revenue ratios and fiscal sustainability frameworks have existed for decades. The IMF and BIS publish on these constantly. What this site offers is interactivity, not novelty.

License

Published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0. If you reproduce or build on this work, please credit it and link back.